Putin told you so in 2022, even in 2014
Amundi expects Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 1.5% in 2024 and by 2% in 2025, compared with 0.5% and 1.2% for the euro zone.
GDP is a function of several things including government spending. Russia is throwing their war chest at war material production. That will absolutely cause GDP to increase sharply. However, like many things Russia is doing right now, it is a short term strategy.
Russia is also depleting their Soviet inheritance rapidly in Ukraine. There is visual confirmations of over 13,000 Russian vehicles lost in Ukraine, including over 2,500 Russian tanks lost.
That metric is very tricky and it was mentioned so often in the last 20 years there some started to suspect it was explicitly tailored for that situation, up to the point GDP abbreviation (ВВП) are Putin’s initials. War production was indeed ramped up - I don’t know about regular ammunition and materiel (tho obviously sped up), but there were a lot of news about new drone factories since they’ve got hyped up. It adds %s, but it’s basically government paying itself for soon-to-dispose products it itself uses, not a factory or a business where it takes it’s funds to do so. Not a sustainable model, but who knows how much they are able to put into it.
I don’t know that GDP is a useful proxy measure for whether the sanctions have been effective. A war economy can (temporarily) look good in economic statistics better suited for peacetime but it’s the worst possible form of stimulus. It’s more like buying fireworks on a credit card than building infrastructure. GDP doesn’t measure prosperity; it measures activity.
Great! Then they won’t mind if more sanctions are added.
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GDP is not a metric that can be used for measuring growth when a government is giving unlimited funding to a specific project.
As the name says, it’s just the gross domestic product. If for example a government orders produce and purchase one billion dollars in something, it can be paper clips or it can be ammunition, then the GDP would increase of one billion dollars. That increase does not mean that the population is actually thriving. For example if a government decides to conscript all the farmers and send them to die in a senseless special military operation that led to produce 100 billions in tanks, the population would be starving even if the GDP increased by 100 billions. This is especially true when a government neglected the actual needs of their citizens for decades and instead of using revenue for building infrastructure decided to just amass wealth in huge monetary reserves
GDP is an especially bad measure if a country can just print additional money, like russia can, and pay domestic actors with it. Printing money expands the GDP.
So whoever wrote this Propaganda piece doesn’t understand basics or purposefully hides them.
How is any economically-focused rag worth a damn taking anything they’re saying or the stats they’re publishing seriously? They’ve been very obviously cooking the numbers in a lot of ways since February 2022.
