Gallium and germanium are used in lots of electronic components. AESA (active electronically scanned array) radars used on modern warships and fighter airplanes can not be made without those metals. China produces some 95% of those available on the global market.
It will take one or two years until the currently available stocks outside of China are diminished. But it takes much longer to open up new mining and processing facilities for replacement of the Chinese production. The processes used therein are quite dirty. A not-in-my-backyard attitude will make any setup of new facilities difficult to pursue.
I love how a lot of people are coping claiming that ThiS wIlL AcTuAlLy HuRt China because all this industry is just going to magically appear somewhere else. Obviously in the long term the west will have no choice but to start creating their own supply chains, however that’s going to take many years to do. Meanwhile, China already has independent end-to-end supply chains and that means Chinese companies will have a huge advantage producing tech products using these rare metals giving China a huge market advantage.
I really hope they become super self sufficient in the coming years and just keep cutting of more and more as the west crumbles apart. I say this as someone from the west that will most likely take a hit from it. At this point though I think a complete collapse of the west is better than trying to live under it.
