As of Friday, at least 31 cases of measles have been reported so far this year across Canada, according to a CBC News tally of provincial and regional figures released by public health teams.

That’s already the largest annual total since 2019 and more than double the number of cases reported last year, as medical experts fear the number will rise while more Canadians travel in and out of the country this month for March break.

New projections from a team at Simon Fraser University (SFU) in British Columbia show the grim possibilities. The modelling suggests that vaccine coverage of less than 85 per cent can lead to dozens of cases within small communities — or even hundreds if immunization rates are lower.