I’m not familiar with the material conditions of the country and how popular the EFF are, or how the election process is carried out, to know what to expect. But from South Africans and those more familiar what’re your thoughts on the upcoming election? Will the ANC continue to rule? Does the EFF have a chance? Will another party take over?

  • Haas [he/him]@lemmygrad.ml
    0·
    5 months ago

    South African here. The first thing you need to understand about my country is that it is still controlled by white monopoly capitalists. Even though we got political freedom in 1994, nothing was done to reclaim ownership over the economy, and as MLs we know that’s where the real power is.

    As a result the ANC, under the influence of WMC, has consistently been drifting right. The current president, Cyril Ramaphosa, is a businessman with a net worth of R6.4 billion ($450 million) and he is on the board of the British platinum mine monopoly Lonmin, who famously massacred 36 workers on strike in 2012. So you can imagine the policies he’s been implementing since the start of his presidency in 2019. Austerity and privatization has been the rule of the day.

    The economic situation is unlikely to change as a result of this election. Even though the ANC is all but confirmed to lose their majority on Wednesday, this only means that they will be forced into a coalition government. Who they choose is what will ultimately determine what the next couple of years will look like. Their options are the EFF, the DA, and MK.

    The ideal scenario is if they enter a coalition with the EFF, for obvious reasons. They’re a Marxist-Leninist party who want to implement sweeping reforms like nationalisation, land reform, decolonisation etc. While they might not be able to implement reforms in a coalition, the country’s consciousness will be shifted to the left.

    If they enter into a coalition with the DA (Democratic Alliance) we will have 5 more years of austerity. The DA is a right wing party, comparable to the US Democratic Party, and they have no intention of improving South Africa. Their plans for the country amount to inviting foreign investment and relaxing labour laws (yay). There is a danger this could happen because they are the official opposition party at around 25% of the vote

    The MK party is a bit of a wildcard. They were only founded 6 months ago, but they have former president Jacob Zuma as the face of the party. He was an immensely popular figure, even though he also continued austerity and was mega corrupt. The thing is MK party is not just Jacob Zuma, and their manifesto is weirdly progressive. Very much pro land reform, nationalisation and decolonisatiom, but very backward on social issues like LGBTQ+, women’s rights and traditional leadership. I genuinely don’t know what will happen if the ANC picks them as coalition partner.

    There is also a fourth scenario where the DA gets enough votes to enter into coalition with smaller right wing parties, but that’s unlikely to happen.

    In conclusion, we’re not going to see an outright win for the EFF, so not much will change as a result of this election. The South African consciousness is shifting to the left though, especially among the black youth, so I’m still very optimistic for the future. The EFF is a strong party, and I’m sure they’ll be able to seize opportunities as they come.