Election betting markets are notoriously unreliable compared to polls. They’re easy to manipulate and it’s generally younger men who gamble online. Even PredictIt (which limits bets to $850) has tons of stupid money. I know because I won hundreds of dollars on there by not being stupid.
And by stupid money, I mean extremely stupid. Like even after elections are over, you can often find races where people are buying contracts for the loser because of conspiracy theories or whatever.
Yup. Betfair in the UK didn’t close or settle their 2020 market for months, even though the terms of the market were about who was declared winner on election night, and were long since met with 100% certainty. That was some very easy money.
Election betting markets are notoriously unreliable compared to polls. They’re easy to manipulate and it’s generally younger men who gamble online. Even PredictIt (which limits bets to $850) has tons of stupid money. I know because I won hundreds of dollars on there by not being stupid.
And by stupid money, I mean extremely stupid. Like even after elections are over, you can often find races where people are buying contracts for the loser because of conspiracy theories or whatever.
Yup. Betfair in the UK didn’t close or settle their 2020 market for months, even though the terms of the market were about who was declared winner on election night, and were long since met with 100% certainty. That was some very easy money.