“According to the final New York Times/Siena College poll before the election, conducted between October 20 and 23, Harris and Trump are tied on 48 percent each among 2,516 voters nationwide.”
So first, as usual, nationwide polling doesn’t mean jack. How many of those 2,516 voters polled were in states that are already going to go one way or the other?
We don’t have a national election, we have 50 State elections + Washington D.C.
We already know how states like California, Oregon, Washington are going to go. We already know how states like Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas are going to go.
We need to look at the tossup states, these are the states that will decide this. This is harder because of right wing pollsters flooding the channel recently to make Trump look stronger than he is.
The polling analysis I did before this saw more states swinging to Trump, this one shows those same states moving back to toss up which indicates the momentum coming back behind Harris, which is just where she should want to be 11 days before the election.
Plotted on a map:
Advantage is with Harris.
Unlike before, PA by itself, is NOT enough to put her over the top. PA puts her at 260. PA+WI is a win, PA+AZ is a win, PA+GA is a win.
If she doesn’t get PA, she has a path with GA+WI and 1 other state, either AZ or NV.
If she doesn’t win EITHER PA or GA, she has no path to victory. WI+AZ+NV puts her at 268 to Trump’s 270.
Looking at the Trump side, same deal, PA by itself isn’t enough. PA+GA hits 270. PA+WI+NV = 270. PA+NV+AZ is 271.
Without PA, Trump has a path with GA+MI and any one other state, WI, AZ, NV.
If Trump loses PA and either GA or MI, he has to get WI+AZ. Losing either throws it to Harris.
So if you’re wondering why they’re putting so much effort into PA, that’s why. It’s the make or break state.
Idk why you got nothing but downvotes when you’re a) 100% right about national polls and b) giving a nice, detailed overview of some relevant polling data and your take on it
Edit: “Nothing but downvotes” at the time I saw this. That’s clearly corrected itself lol
Omg thanks for the update on this, I bookmarked the last version, and tbh now I’m just inclined to follow your analysis, since then I can compare it to election-day counting performance and see what I can hope for, kinda cutting through the noise
PA is the kingmaker here, plus another state, and that’s what imma focus on if imma doomscroll/look, cuz holy fuck this election is raising my blood pressure
Yeah, my plan is to run a final tally the day before the election, and then on election day there will be a megathread with live results as they are coming in.
Wisconsin is special. They are NOT going to have rational results any time soon and everyone needs to be prepared for that one.
I have a link to a radio show about it… hang on a tic…
Edit
The votes in Wisconsin are counted by MUNICIPALITY, not by voting district, or even by county.
They have some 1,800 tabulation centers and the results aren’t announced until all 1,800 are in.
“According to the final New York Times/Siena College poll before the election, conducted between October 20 and 23, Harris and Trump are tied on 48 percent each among 2,516 voters nationwide.”
So first, as usual, nationwide polling doesn’t mean jack. How many of those 2,516 voters polled were in states that are already going to go one way or the other?
We don’t have a national election, we have 50 State elections + Washington D.C.
We already know how states like California, Oregon, Washington are going to go. We already know how states like Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas are going to go.
We need to look at the tossup states, these are the states that will decide this. This is harder because of right wing pollsters flooding the channel recently to make Trump look stronger than he is.
AZ - Toss Up
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/
NV - Toss Up
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/
NM - Harris +4, 8, 9, 10
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/
GA - Toss Up
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/
NC - Trump +1, 2, 3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/
PA - Toss Up
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
MI - Harris +2, 3, 4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
WI - Toss Up
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/
The polling analysis I did before this saw more states swinging to Trump, this one shows those same states moving back to toss up which indicates the momentum coming back behind Harris, which is just where she should want to be 11 days before the election.
Plotted on a map:
Advantage is with Harris.
Unlike before, PA by itself, is NOT enough to put her over the top. PA puts her at 260. PA+WI is a win, PA+AZ is a win, PA+GA is a win.
If she doesn’t get PA, she has a path with GA+WI and 1 other state, either AZ or NV.
If she doesn’t win EITHER PA or GA, she has no path to victory. WI+AZ+NV puts her at 268 to Trump’s 270.
Looking at the Trump side, same deal, PA by itself isn’t enough. PA+GA hits 270. PA+WI+NV = 270. PA+NV+AZ is 271.
Without PA, Trump has a path with GA+MI and any one other state, WI, AZ, NV.
If Trump loses PA and either GA or MI, he has to get WI+AZ. Losing either throws it to Harris.
So if you’re wondering why they’re putting so much effort into PA, that’s why. It’s the make or break state.
Idk why you got nothing but downvotes when you’re a) 100% right about national polls and b) giving a nice, detailed overview of some relevant polling data and your take on it
Edit: “Nothing but downvotes” at the time I saw this. That’s clearly corrected itself lol
A lot of Harris fans don’t like to admit that Texas, Florida, North Carolina aren’t in play.
Omg thanks for the update on this, I bookmarked the last version, and tbh now I’m just inclined to follow your analysis, since then I can compare it to election-day counting performance and see what I can hope for, kinda cutting through the noise
PA is the kingmaker here, plus another state, and that’s what imma focus on if imma doomscroll/look, cuz holy fuck this election is raising my blood pressure
Yeah, my plan is to run a final tally the day before the election, and then on election day there will be a megathread with live results as they are coming in.
Wisconsin is special. They are NOT going to have rational results any time soon and everyone needs to be prepared for that one.
I have a link to a radio show about it… hang on a tic…
Edit
The votes in Wisconsin are counted by MUNICIPALITY, not by voting district, or even by county.
They have some 1,800 tabulation centers and the results aren’t announced until all 1,800 are in.
Link to radio show, good info:
https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2024/10/22/wisconsin-voters-election-milwaukee-security-denier