Maybe the Russian conscripts don’t like putin’s new fucktoy 🤷
If they can achieve their goals, it doesn’t matter. The men sacrificed will just be a footnote of the war.
Of the war maybe, but Russia’s future economy and demography are very much going to have long term impacts from these losses.
Yeah, sure, but Ukraine will have it much worse (if western powers don’t finally take the war seriously).
Putin didn’t start this war because he specifically hated Ukraine and wanted it destroyed, even at the cost of Russia’s existence. He started it because he wanted to make Russia great again. In that regard the war is an utter failure.
In that regard the war is an utter failure.
Objectively, yes, but do the Russian people now that? And if they did, could they even do anything to stop the failed war? I kinda doubt it. If Russia wins, Putin will sell it as some kind of amazing victory and his followers will gobble it up while dissenters will either be defenestrated or locked up.
Why does it matter if the Russian people know that? It’s not like they can will more tanks into existence, or just imagine foreign trade and get tangible goods as a result.
Russia’s actual real physical power has been broken by this war. Their demographic future is doomed. Their economy is in ruins. It doesn’t matter if the Russian people are happy with that, they can paint big “Z” marks on their wretched hovels in patriotic ecstasy and it won’t have any actual impact on anything.
It’d be ideal if Ukraine could have an outright victory and end the war fast, but failing that all that’s necessary is for Ukraine to survive and it can wait out Russia’s collapse.
Why do they have all this zeal now? Trump just won the U.S. election, Putin knows the war will get easier in the near future. Shouldn’t they being falling back and concentrating their power on maintaining positions? Are they just trying to purge out the last of the conscripts?
Because Trump wants to end the war, but the US is not the country to make the call. Ukraine still has a strong military and arms industry itself and many European countries and the EU have the money and arms industry to keep Ukraine in the fight. In fact we saw that when the Republicans blocked aid to Ukraine for months. Today it is even worse for Russia as both Ukraines and the EUs arms industry have grown.
Russia on the other hand has been hit by sanctions for years, which make no mistake have hit the Russian economy hard. We are talking high inflation, problems finding money for the government, gas sales having collapsed, a somewhat likely housing crisis, defaults of lots of companies in Russia, coal industry collapsing, private bancrupcy rising fast and a lot more bad stuff. The Soviet era weapon stockpiles are running low and Russia has increasing problems finding new recruits.
Ukraine can keep the fight going for quite some time, without US help. That might be long enough to bring down Russia. The key word being might, as it depends on a lot of factors, most notably European support, but also the oil price and a lot of other factors.
Looking at this taking land has two main advantages for Putin. First of all it lowers European support for the war, as they might believe that Ukraine is going to loose, hence pushing for peace and secondly in a peace deal it gives him leverage.
Trump will try to offer both sides an ultimatum such as:
Putin, make a cease fire or we will increase support to Ukraine
Zelensky, make a cease fire or we will end Ukraine support
In the end Ukraine will likely be the one getting screwed, they will have to give up their land and likely get little in return. Almost no chance this ends up working.
Because trump is going to end this war one way or another. Russia is now on a very short deadline and is throwing whatever they can to gain whatever land they can. After trump decides to do his thing, the lines will be frozen, for better or worse. Whatever deal ends up being written has to take that into account.
Trump will try giving Ukrainian land to Russia and Zelensky won’t go for it. End of story.
if that’ll be the case, i really hope that us won’t back out from giving them supplies
That will almost definitely be the threat from Trump
I think people are being too pessimistic about Trump in this context. Trump is terrible, sure, but one of the things that makes him terrible is total self-interest. I don’t think he’s as reliable a puppet of Putin as commonly thought.
I’m thinking perhaps Putin is worried Trump might decide to flip the script and act the tough guy against him this time, since Putin is significantly weaker now than in his previous term. Getting Kursk back would be absolutely vital if it looks like Trump is going to try to freeze the conflict or force negotiations.
The GOP as a whole is not reliably pro-Putin either, there are some hawks in there that would love to finish Putin off.
In general, this is an uncertain time approaching.
I strongly feel putin has some leverage on trump, based on behaviors in his first term in office. I don’t think we’re past that issue.
It’s politically embarrassing for Putin to start 2025 with Ukraine still holding Russian territory.
