They started spending that money after starting the war, so it’s use is related to the war in question. Thus, when they will run out, whatever they were paying for (war related) will stop getting money.

It might not be a direct financing of the battlefield activities, but while the victory will be in the battlefield, the biggest chunk of the battle actually happens in preparation and logistics.

In other words, I’m hopeful that this will have a major impact on the invader’s ability to cause harm.

It would be 9 years, if only one linear factor was at play.

I believe it’s multiple factors, though.

One is that every plane taken out had its share of “work”, which is now distributed across the remaining ones. Which means they get worn out a little faster. Similar to how they have to cannibalise parts from one civilian aircraft to repair another.

Then I’m going they cannot maintain the usual production speed because if the sanctions. Add to that an increased need to repair since the plains are more heavily used. And I’d guess that repairs are fine at the same facility that produces them, this also reducing production speed.

In other words, I think it’s about snowballing and at this rate it could be way less than nine years.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi_Su-34

Since 2006 they’ve built 150 units. That’s 8 units a year. Some were sold, some got lost.

As of 20 May 2023, there have been 20 visually confirmed cases of Su-34s being lost, damaged or abandoned by Russian forces since the start of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. 23 now, apparently.

At their price, with sanctions, with wear of the remaining ones, at this rate, they might not have any left very soon.

About 50% of what they had at the beginning two years ago.

Oh, but it does. True, they have no regard for human casualties, but even with their population, they cannot maintain the meatwaves forever.

Let’s have a look. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia

So, 47% of their population is male. Out of 145 million of bodies they posses, males are 68 million. The percentage of 18-44 year olds is 35. That’s 23 million potential soldiers.

Omg, that’s one massive army, one would say.

But this is russia, we’re talking about.

In June 2009, the Public Chamber of Russia reported over 500,000 alcohol-related deaths annually. They have 1.3% of population dying every year. In 2009 it meant about 1.8 million dead. 25% of those were alcohol related. That’s only deaths.

They improved, but an average russian is still a professional alcoholic. Let’s assume that a whooping 80% of those 23 millions are actually relatively healthy. That’s 18 million potential soldiers.

Still a lot.

But it’s still russia.

Apart from alcohol, it’s famous for the widespread thievery. I’m not joking. https://ru-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/Пьют_и_воруют?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp

The big difference is that for last 9 years, Ukraine was at war with russia, while russia was enjoying its second army of the world status. In other words they were stealing as usual.

So yes, one can think that it is impossible to fight against an army of 18 million. But russia started this war with 800k and two years later, lost already half of them, bumped the army to two million and still is making an occasional 200 meters of progress only to lose them in a week.

Ukraine still not losing and not planning to, is what matters.

Ah, but it’s all about the context.

See, nothing was done and nothing changed, is definitely not an update.

On the other hand, “russia lost 30’000 personell in November alone, but nothing changed” is a significant update.