Rates of severe disease may be staying at relatively low levels, but experts agree that there are probably more infections than the current surveillance systems can capture.
“There is more transmission out there than what the surveillance data indicates,” said Janet Hamilton, executive director of the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists. “And we should be paying attention to it, because we are starting to see an increase.”
Weekly hospital admissions have nearly doubled over the past month, including a 19% bump in the most recent week, CDC data shows. And a sample of laboratories participating in a federal surveillance program show that test positivity rates have tripled in the past two months.
There are some hopeful signs: Biobot data shows that wastewater levels may be starting to flatten, and relatively low hospitalization rates suggest that there may be a lower risk of severe disease for many.
A few countries still have somewhat precise numbers. UK has the ZOE health study, which found over 1 million people currently being infected out of roughly 50 million (from memory; I don’t know how many people live in UK). Germany has the SentiSurv study, indicating incidences approaching 1000 again. While the latter is only a survey in a few major cities, it allows calculation of a dark figure when put in relation to officially registered cases, which can then be applied to all regions that have the same criteria for when to test.
Overall, not great that millions will miss a chance to get the upcoming vaccine that would provide very decent protection against the most common strains.