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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: June 10th, 2023

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  • From a purely expected return perspective it only makes sense to pay back debts vs investing if the credit spread in the debt is larger than the investment’s risk premium.

    For secured debt (like a mortgage) held by someone with reasonable credit the equity risk premium is most likely larger than the credit spread.

    The analysis becomes more complicated when you take into account an uncertain income stream to use against the debt. Paying off your mortgage is like buying insurance against the tail event that you lose your house because you can’t make your mortgage payments.

    Insurance is generally a negative expected return activity. But the value is in reshaping the outcome distribution. Your average outcome is lower but you’ve flattened out the tail.


  • As a counterweight to the widening of wealth inequality, rising rates lower the value of essentially all risk assets. So the ones who truly benefit the most are the ones who only acquired their assets after the hiking cycle.

    This is partly why there are examples of periods with high inflation that also saw a narrowing of wage inequality. The post-war period in Europe was such an example. In that time the relative bargaining power of labour also helped because the high inflation was met with even higher pay raises. So working people were acquiring new wealth through their wages during a period of sustained low asset prices.

    For 2023 wage growth in Canada actually exceeded inflation. I would bet that we’ll see that trend continue this year as well as inflation comes down.





  • It’s almost entirely driven by the services sector, in particular rent. Goods prices had been deflationary for the better part of the fall, but near the end of the year their prices flattened.

    The Red Sea issues haven’t really started hitting prices yet, but I think they will start hitting goods and energy pricesin the coming months. I personally think we could likely see inflation starting to increase again unless service inflation comes in




  • The article is behind a paywall but…

    Wealthsimple isn’t even a bank, let alone the next big bank. They are not a deposit taking institution. Their ‘savings account’ is just an agreement with a number of actual banks to accept deposits from Wealthsimple on behalf of their clients. Wealthsimple is merely acting as an intermediary.

    Being a true deposit taking institution comes with a lot more regulation and institutional sophistication. Never mind the fact that deposit taking is only one side of what truly defines banking: aggregating demand deposits to enable lending. I’m sure Wealthsimple is looking to get into that game, but since they aren’t deposit taking I’m sure it will just be a pretty wrapper around another actual bank just like their ‘savings accounts’.

    Is Horizons ETFs the next big bank because of their CASH.TO ETF? Horizons is doing a very similar thing through a different vehicle.

    Having said, Wealthsimple has clearly created a competitive product suite. But their ability to offer these products fundamentally relies on other organizations (e.g., Mastercard, Big 5 banks) to do the heavy lifting. Wealthsimple’s competitive advantage is in product design and advertising.