Apparently Matt Walsh and Co tried to do a documentary in which they’d start a women’s basketball team full of “trans” women. Only they ran into a problem, no league would let them compete with out actually transitioning and none of the men (shockingly) were willing to start transitioning. This so fundamentally undermines the idea that anyone would transition for personal gain that they changed their minds on the topic and… Nah of course not, instead they made a “comday” movie so they could pretend to do what they couldn’t actually do so they could keep peddling their bullshit.

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The argument is just about how the known probability of existing in a simulation goes up the more intelligent life we know to have existed in a simulation. Keyword being “known” as it’s the knowing, for a fact, that the odds exist that makes for an interesting thought experiment, especially when the odds of simulation are higher than not.

The actual probability is inherently unknowable for the reasons you’ve pointed out.