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I tried to look through a lot of cases. It seemed like most every case was leaking information, threats of actual violence, stolen valor, or other generally agreed upon crimes. There’s truth to the notion that a government is more likely to look for crimes if you’re a specific person, but I don’t know of anyone in the modern US who goes to jail for lying about things the army has die. I use the word “lying” because Russia courts make the claim that that’s what happened here.
Also, there are more recent cases of Russia imprisoning someone for essentially this same crime.
I remember telling people it’s possible and having a whole bunch of online folk tell me how Stephen Wang from Princeton said there was a 98% chance that Democrats would win.
Nate Silver went from being congratulated for his predictions to getting criticized for mentioning that there were correlated errors which could easily result in a Republican president. It was interesting because Silver wasn’t even predicting a Republican victory just a 40% chance it could happen.