10x smaller doesn’t mean 10x cheaper when things you’re cutting corners on are warhead and rocket engine that is cheapest components per gram that also make the entire thing work.
Wait, what else is there in a missile though? I’m obviously a complete ignorant in this space but in my head a missile is the thing that goes boom (warhead), the thing that goes vroom (engine), electronics, and the packaging. I’m assuming the packaging is also not the main cost here since “smaller doesn’t mean cheaper”, sooo, what, are the electronics that expensive?
@V0ldek You missed maintenance and logistics. Military gear is typically amortized over a 30 year period, so a £3M missile might actually cost something like £0.3M to build then a bit under £100K per year to keep in working order (new batteries and motors, regular inspections and refurb, cost of the leak-proof warehouse it’s stored in, etc).
@cstross@V0ldek New motors? Cruise missiles use turbofans, just like planes, unlike rockets. So they don’t get old fast, probably last 30 years just fine.
And, well, just build them in Ukraine, and shoot them the day they are made…
Setting up the infrastructure for that manufacturing is expensive and complicated, requiring supply chains and skilled workers. Even ignoring the risks of disruption by hostile action that’s a lot of infrastructure and industrial capacity to build up in an active war zone, and from the western perspective it’s better long-term to have that extra manufacturing capacity locally, to say nothing of being easier to sell to politicians and voters.
@YourNetworkIsHaunted Ukraine is building its missiles well enough even now, it has expertise, skilled workers, etc. Ever heard of Mriya, Antonov, etc?
Also, ironically, it was a major supplier of the Russian Air Forces, and it maintained Russian rockets until recently.
javelin atgm is like quarter million dollars, and the only thing it has is IR seeker + inertial guidance. it also doesn’t keep actual software onboard until launched
explosive is something like 20$/kg, rocket propellant (if used) would be somewhere in the same ballpark. it’s cruise missile so another big cost will be small jet engine, electronics are a bulk of the cost, yeah. electronics are also what is responsible for bunch of new capabilities. new seekers? TERCOM (not on sea but yknow), maybe datalink? camera to feed image back to operator? good inertial guidance can get pricey. harden it all against jamming and EMP, keep all pieces non-chinese and assembled in usa, keep paper trail and things get expensive. and it all needs software too
for 155mm artillery shell something like third of the cost is fuze, with second most expensive component being casing (30kg-ish piece of steel rather precisely machined on lathe and heat treated in specific way)
especially in case of antiship missiles (and bunker busters) casing is single piece (or few-piece, welded) of forged low alloy steel that weights a fuckton and has to be reasonably strong. it’s not just a particularly violent crafts class project that is bits of steel held up by epoxy, like what you can get away with in anti-air missile
paper trail is a real issue. there was a huge noise few months ago about some small part of a pump (a gasket or something) from honeywell that went into F-35, that was found out to be made in china. they had to find alternatives asap
it gets expensive because things that modern ashm has to do can get pretty complex. it can go like this: lauch from tube, pop wings open, start jet engine, get to cruise speed and maintain altitude 2m above water. then get to area guided by gps, but you can’t just rely on gps only. then get up, start scanning what’s forward with its own radar, when target is found dive to it. or fire up additional terminal rocket engine to get to mach 2 or whatever to make intercept harder (that’s what one chinese missile does). or launch 7 or so, get them all to communicate, one flies high above and uses its own radar to find targets and guide the rest of missiles. that one up is visible to radars (above radar horizon) so it can get shot down, but that’s no problem because if that happens another missile gets up and does the same thing (that’s a soviet ashm, can’t remember which one). or missile can stay down and communicate with friendly AWACS or nearby F-35 or something to guide it. there are more options
Wait, what else is there in a missile though? I’m obviously a complete ignorant in this space but in my head a missile is the thing that goes boom (warhead), the thing that goes vroom (engine), electronics, and the packaging. I’m assuming the packaging is also not the main cost here since “smaller doesn’t mean cheaper”, sooo, what, are the electronics that expensive?
@V0ldek You missed maintenance and logistics. Military gear is typically amortized over a 30 year period, so a £3M missile might actually cost something like £0.3M to build then a bit under £100K per year to keep in working order (new batteries and motors, regular inspections and refurb, cost of the leak-proof warehouse it’s stored in, etc).
@cstross @V0ldek New motors? Cruise missiles use turbofans, just like planes, unlike rockets. So they don’t get old fast, probably last 30 years just fine.
And, well, just build them in Ukraine, and shoot them the day they are made…
Setting up the infrastructure for that manufacturing is expensive and complicated, requiring supply chains and skilled workers. Even ignoring the risks of disruption by hostile action that’s a lot of infrastructure and industrial capacity to build up in an active war zone, and from the western perspective it’s better long-term to have that extra manufacturing capacity locally, to say nothing of being easier to sell to politicians and voters.
@YourNetworkIsHaunted Ukraine is building its missiles well enough even now, it has expertise, skilled workers, etc. Ever heard of Mriya, Antonov, etc?
Also, ironically, it was a major supplier of the Russian Air Forces, and it maintained Russian rockets until recently.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antonov
javelin atgm is like quarter million dollars, and the only thing it has is IR seeker + inertial guidance. it also doesn’t keep actual software onboard until launched
explosive is something like 20$/kg, rocket propellant (if used) would be somewhere in the same ballpark. it’s cruise missile so another big cost will be small jet engine, electronics are a bulk of the cost, yeah. electronics are also what is responsible for bunch of new capabilities. new seekers? TERCOM (not on sea but yknow), maybe datalink? camera to feed image back to operator? good inertial guidance can get pricey. harden it all against jamming and EMP, keep all pieces non-chinese and assembled in usa, keep paper trail and things get expensive. and it all needs software too
for 155mm artillery shell something like third of the cost is fuze, with second most expensive component being casing (30kg-ish piece of steel rather precisely machined on lathe and heat treated in specific way)
especially in case of antiship missiles (and bunker busters) casing is single piece (or few-piece, welded) of forged low alloy steel that weights a fuckton and has to be reasonably strong. it’s not just a particularly violent crafts class project that is bits of steel held up by epoxy, like what you can get away with in anti-air missile
paper trail is a real issue. there was a huge noise few months ago about some small part of a pump (a gasket or something) from honeywell that went into F-35, that was found out to be made in china. they had to find alternatives asap
it gets expensive because things that modern ashm has to do can get pretty complex. it can go like this: lauch from tube, pop wings open, start jet engine, get to cruise speed and maintain altitude 2m above water. then get to area guided by gps, but you can’t just rely on gps only. then get up, start scanning what’s forward with its own radar, when target is found dive to it. or fire up additional terminal rocket engine to get to mach 2 or whatever to make intercept harder (that’s what one chinese missile does). or launch 7 or so, get them all to communicate, one flies high above and uses its own radar to find targets and guide the rest of missiles. that one up is visible to radars (above radar horizon) so it can get shot down, but that’s no problem because if that happens another missile gets up and does the same thing (that’s a soviet ashm, can’t remember which one). or missile can stay down and communicate with friendly AWACS or nearby F-35 or something to guide it. there are more options