Russia’s been playing both sides for years now. I think the problem is that they need Iran more than Israel right now, so Putin can’t even manage to openly condemn Hamas.
Of course, this whole thing helps distract the US from Ukraine and possibly diverts weapons/munitions. That’s good for Russia.
But it also damages relations with Israel, which IRC is also a large importer of Russian oil. That’s bad for Russia.
It possibly undermines the nascent treaty between Israel and Saudi Arabia. That’s good for Russia.
But China helped broker a deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and this threatens to undermine that deal and embarrass Xi. That’s bad for Russia.
But uncertainty and the scuttling of a deal between SA and the US, will raise oil prices. That’s good for Russia.
But if Iran feels that a war with Israel is increasingly likely, they’ll be forced to send less weaponry/drones to Russia. When this is done, and given Israel has clearly decided to stop pretending to give a fuck that’s likely to sooner rather than later, they will be annoyed by Russia’s stance and more likely to send more stuff to Ukraine. That’s bad for Russia.
Etc. etc. etc.
TLDR clusterfuck. I wouldn’t be surprised that you’re right and that Russia helped Iran. They do seem to like shooting themselves in the foot and taking stupid gambles.
Russia also has (or should I perhaps say had given recent events) quite cordial relations with Israel. For example, Russia bought Israeli drones and used them in Ukraine. Also still have visa free travel and there was even talk of a customs union IRC. Israel was also hesitant to sell weapons to Ukraine, because they didn’t want to annoy Russia.
Russia’s been playing both sides for years now. I think the problem is that they need Iran more than Israel right now, so Putin can’t even manage to openly condemn Hamas.
Of course, this whole thing helps distract the US from Ukraine and possibly diverts weapons/munitions. That’s good for Russia.
But it also damages relations with Israel, which IRC is also a large importer of Russian oil. That’s bad for Russia.
It possibly undermines the nascent treaty between Israel and Saudi Arabia. That’s good for Russia.
But China helped broker a deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and this threatens to undermine that deal and embarrass Xi. That’s bad for Russia.
But uncertainty and the scuttling of a deal between SA and the US, will raise oil prices. That’s good for Russia.
But if Iran feels that a war with Israel is increasingly likely, they’ll be forced to send less weaponry/drones to Russia. When this is done, and given Israel has clearly decided to stop pretending to give a fuck that’s likely to sooner rather than later, they will be annoyed by Russia’s stance and more likely to send more stuff to Ukraine. That’s bad for Russia.
Etc. etc. etc.
TLDR clusterfuck. I wouldn’t be surprised that you’re right and that Russia helped Iran. They do seem to like shooting themselves in the foot and taking stupid gambles.