All in all, GOP fearmongering about crime parallels the party’s inflation alarms based on selective and outdated numbers. It can be effective, unfortunately; during 2022, Gallup found that 78 percent of Americans thought crime was higher nationally than in 2021. Turns out that just wasn’t the case.
NATIONAL trends, yes. FTA:
“The FBI’s crime statistics estimates for 2022 show that national violent crime decreased an estimated 1.7% in 2022 compared to 2021 estimates”
But when you look at local numbers, such as shootings in my home town of Portland:
https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/portlandpolicebureau/viz/PortlandShootingIncidentStatistics/ShootingIncidentStatistics
January to August shooting numbers:
2019 - 276
2020 - 497
2021 - 850
2022 - 898
2023 - 725
If you look at full year numbers:
2019 - 413
2020 - 919
2021 - 1315
2022 - 1309
2023 - 725 (through August)
And that’s not violent crime in general, that’s JUST shootings.
National trends down, but yes, every place is different with different reasons behind the decline. Unfortunately it’s quite difficult (albeit not always impossible) to find the covariates responsible for these trends.
You can point to some policy changes, public sentiment, how police are run those years, economic changes due to COVID-19, and so on, but usually it’s going to be qualitative evidence at best. There just isn’t the multiverse version of Portland where X, Y or Z was slightly different, providing an experimental conditions to test policy and natural experiments only go so far (i.e. Portland compared to other midsized, liberal cities, is still going to ignore a ton of factors).
What makes Portland special after the pandemic? My first instinct is always check what jobs were impacted, but as an outsider, I don’t know what Portland has aside from really good coffee and higher than average propensity for handlebar mustaches.
The biggest change is Oregon passed ballot measure 110 in 2020 which took effect Feb. 1 2021, decriminalizing all drugs.
What followed was gangs from Honduras rolling in pushing fentanyl and all the associated violence that comes with that.
https://www.wweek.com/news/courts/2023/03/25/whos-running-downtown-portlands-open-air-fentanyl-market/
It doesn’t help that the cops, when faced with actual accountability, just threw up their hands and stopped even the appearance of law enforcement.
Stopped doing traffic stops:
https://bikeportland.org/2023/08/08/portland-police-bureau-officer-admits-no-traffic-enforcement-messaging-was-politically-motivated-377939
Disbanded the gun taskforce:
https://www.wweek.com/news/2020/06/09/mayor-ted-wheeler-agrees-to-disband-the-portland-police-bureaus-gun-violence-reduction-team/
Stopped answering 911 calls:
https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/03/portland-police-will-stop-responding-in-person-to-calls-that-arent-life-threatening-citing-coronavirus-concerns.html
Fewer calls, fewer arrests, more force:
https://www.oregonlive.com/crime/2023/04/portland-police-responded-to-fewer-calls-made-fewer-arrests-in-recent-years-but-used-force-in-greater-percentage-of-arrests-data-shows.html
Two of the big open air drug markets are literally blocks from police HQ.