Given the current state of partisan polarization, it’s unlikely Biden can get majority job approval next year even with the most fortunate set of circumstances. But the good news for him is that he probably doesn’t have to. Job-approval ratings are crucial indicators in a normal presidential reelection cycle that is basically a referendum on the incumbent’s record. Assuming Trump is the Republican nominee, 2024 will not be a normal reelection cycle for three reasons.
Don’t take it for granted. Hilary lost because of this. Get out and vote.
Hillary lost because she couldn’t read the writing on the wall and told everyone she deserved to win because it was her time. She was the worst person on the planet to go against Trump. The GOP spent 30 years demonizing her and she played right into their hands. Biden should have been the candidate then but that is hindsight.
And even with all of her mistakes and her total lack of charisma, she still only lost because of an archaic system that lets the winner of the popular vote lose.
And even with all of her mistakes and her total lack of charisma, she still only lost because of an archaic system that lets the winner of the popular vote lose.
It’s not like this system was sprung on her at the last second. She didn’t take it into account. She pretty much ignored key swing states that wound up going to Trump.
She was carried in a palanquin across the finish line in the primaries and didn’t understand that she had to run the rest of the way.
Bruh. She ignored a lot of close call battleground states and instead spent the end of the campaign doing “victory laps” in solid blue states like Cali because she was obsessed with beating Obama’s popular vote total…
You could argue her and her campaign should have known better, I just don’t know where you’d find someone who disagreed to have that argument with.
And that’s not even getting into how with population growth, popular vote totals will be record breaking damn near every election.
She was supposed to have the best campaign team in modern history, and either they were too stupid to know what the electoral college is, or they were unable to talk sense into Hillary and get her to actually win the election instead of her fucking self esteem tour to make her feel good about herself after losing to Obama.
I’m just tired of people making excuses for her one second like it’s her first day in politics, then trying to claim she’s the greatest political mind of her generation the next.
It can’t be both.
“Shattered” is a book which goes into a bit more detail about what went wrong with the Clinton campaign. Also, this particular review represents a rare moment of lucidity from Matt Taibbi, back when he hadn’t quite completed his devolution from whip-smart political correspondent into a Trump apologist for some fucking reason.
I’m not defending Clinton in the least, man.
You said she only lost because of the electoral college like it’s some weird thing no one knew about…
Maybe you didn’t intend to defend her, but that’s what you did.
He also said “with all her mistakes and total lack of charisma”. It read, to me at least, as anti-Trump and not pro-Clinton. (Even a bit anti-Clinton, as defending someone by saying they have no Charisma is… a weird way of going about it at least.)
This is like saying basketball is archaic because it lets the team with the most hoops lose.
If we were deciding our leadership based on basketball games, I’d sure as shit say it was archaic.
Biden had just lost his son and didn’t want the job. He later said he regretted that decision.
The entire nation regrets that decision.
Hillary lost because she couldn’t read the writing on the wall and told everyone she deserved to win because it was her time.
I still held my nose and voted for her, even though I voted for Bernie Sanders in the primary, because voting for her was a way to fuck over the Republicans.
She was the worst person on the planet to go against Trump.
She absolutely was. And with the pied piper strategy, she basically said who she thought the worst candidate was in the opposition’s field, then lost to him.
She still won the popular vote by a couple million, we have an electoral problem.
Yeah, that electoral college really snuck up on her. Just popped out of the blue in 1789, giving her no time to prepare.
EDIT: Ok., that was harsh. I should go easy on her. After all, she just lost her dear friend Henry Kissinger.
biden would have easily won, being the outgoing vp of a well-liked (by most) two-term president. him not running in 2016 is, i think, ultimately what enabled the hateful, incoherent, diaper-wearing buffoon to even have a chance–which was only enhanced by the dnc playing favorites and essentially handing the nomination to clinton.
i get the ‘why’ he didn’t run; but man, it sure fucked-up this country (and beyond).
him not running in 2016 is, i think, ultimately what enabled the hateful, incoherent, diaper-wearing buffoon to even have a chance
Nope.
What gave trump a chance was Hillary boosting him because she thought she had a chance against him, but no chance against even Jeb Bush.
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/11/hillary-clinton-2016-donald-trump-214428/
Also, the structure of the Republican primary meant that the person with a plurality of votes got all the delegates. And because there was such a split field and Trump was a celebrity, he got a lead in delegates which gave him more press.
if biden ran in 2016, clinton would have been a non-factor. dinglebutt would have still made it to the ballot only to waddle home in defeat.
Then why did Clinton feel her team had to boost him?
Do you know more than her campaign team?
I totally agree.
That year was probably when we would’ve gotten “peak” or near-peak Biden, but that was around the time when his other son Beau Biden had died, which I thought was the reason he sat out the Primaries, which might’ve made them a bit more interesting, but would’ve had the same effect of shutting Sanders out. The way I remembered it, Biden essentially saved the 2012 Obama campaign against Romney, as Obama had been having a shitty campaign and debate performance up until Biden went up against Paul Ryan and dominated. After that debate, things seemed to turn around and I thought he was a shoe-in for 2016.
Moderates are really really motivated to only be just slightly better than Republicans.
They want to be as corporation/billionaire friendly as possible, so they get as many donations as possible.
It’s why Hillary spent money, time, and effort boosting trump and Ben Carson in 2016. There wasn’t much difference between her and Jeb Bush, so she didn’t think she had a chance at beating him.
The obvious risk was Hillary was/is a horrible candidate and might not have even been able to win against them, which she wasn’t.
It’s like if the pitcher in a MLB game bet for his team to win, but by less than the spread. He still wants to win, but he keeps throwing softballs over the plate if he starts to win too much.
But that’s just a game, this is literally playing with people’s lives.
But that’s just a game, this is literally playing with people’s lives.
Welcome to US politics.
really motivated to only be just slightly better
I could be wrong, but I think this impression comes because they are skewing more towards the mean or average, whereas on social media we are quite far left. So to us, they appear similar to republicans, because we as online users on Lemmy are quite far left. However, in reality Dems are quite left of Repubs… just not left enough from our point of view because they appeal to the mean American. Am I making sense? I don’t think I did a good job of explaining myself.
If your state has mail-in voting, just use that. I like to vote while not wearing pants.
Pics or didn’t happen
I’m not giving this sweet ass away for free
From what I’ve heard and seen, a lot of younger voters are disillusioned by the Democrats’ stance on genocide. I’ve heard the comment many are repeating that they are single issue voters when the issue is genocide.
From what I’ve heard and seen, there’s a massive astroturfing effort to discredit Biden over the actions of an allied nation. It’s as if a massive propaganda machine is at work that completely ignores the fact that Republicans would have an even worse stance than Biden on this issue.
Charles Manson would make a better US president than Hitler…
Doesn’t mean people are going to get hype to go vote for Charles Manson.
And telling people those are the only options will depress turnout.
And when turnout is depressed, republicans win.
So how about we try running someone who actually cares about genocide and will at least stop trying to get the perpetrators even more money while telling their own citizens we’re the only first world country that can’t afford universal healthcare?
Like, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to understand that would get more votes.
But the people running the Dem party aren’t going to just turn down those AIPAC kickbacks if they can get away with “at least we’re not republicans, so shut up and vote for another genocide supporter”.
They’ll always aim for “barely better than a Republican”. So let’s fucking replace them with people willing to do more than the absolute bare minimum
So how about we try running someone who actually cares about genocide and will at least stop trying to get the perpetrators even more money while telling their own citizens we’re the only first world country that can’t afford universal healthcare?
This is an unpopular opinion and unpopular opinions lose you elections
The real world isn’t lemmy.
The “but it could be much worse” argument doesn’t carry much weight for many people on this issue.
Has anyone tried explaining that if you allow in the people literally trying to take their rights away, they won’t get another chance to vote in a politician against genocide?
Like the genocide is awful but it shouldn’t make people forget they have very close to home issues currently happening right now.
I hear that excuse every single election and have always found it lacking.
If we always have yo wait until after the next election to demand better of the Democrats then we’ll never see any change. “Lesser evilism” will only allow the Democrats to continue sliding the overtones window to the right.
Even if you’re already planning to vote a straight Democrat ticket, don’t tell them that. Make them think you’re a swing voter they need to pander to.
How are you hearing it every single election? The main issues didn’t start popping up (or at least blatantly enough to change voter turnout) until the 2016 election.
Like that’s not nearly enough elections in between to hear the excuse every election.
How are you hearing it every single election?
He’s only seen 2 that he remembers.
With my ears, of course. Trump isn’t the only threat to the Democrat party, just the most recent one.
These tired ass arguments will no longer work for the younger generation.
Thank god
Which is still an ignorant take, because we’ve only got two realistic options. Bad and worse.
Any complaints otherwise are ignorant at best, if not maliciously deceptive.
Which is still an ignorant take, because we’ve only got two realistic options. Bad and worse.
The solution isn’t “shut up and be grateful we’re not worse”. It’s actually running someone that’s good.
We’ve tried the “shut up you don’t have a choice” strategy and that just keeps ending up with republicans in office.
Why not just run good candidates that want to help America if they get in office?
Why not just run good candidates that want to help America if they get in office?
Because that doesn’t make nearly as much
moneydonations as “Look at how awful the Republicans are.”If the D’s ran a real candidate that actually cared about the country, they’d get blasted in fund raising…People like Booker would go broke overnight if we got universal healthcare. Pelosi would lose her ass if we outlawed congressional trading.
We’re fucked…irrevocably completely and utterly fucked.
If the D’s ran a real candidate that actually cared about the country, they’d get blasted in fund raising
Not really, Bernie and even trump made enough off “small” donations to run effective campaigns.
The difference is small donations from voters don’t come with all the perks and kickbacks as the same amount from a single PAC/billionaire/organization.
And as long as the bare minimum is having a D next to your name, grifters are going to run with the D, and get those huge donations because the people making them expect a return.
So yeah…
People like Booker would go broke overnight if we got universal healthcare. Pelosi would lose her ass if we outlawed congressional trading.
Those are two great examples of politicians that need to be replaced, and why our standards need to be more than a single letter.
There are absolutely very important reasons to still vote for Biden, but you can’t rely on millions of people to all do the right thing just because it’s logical. The person who’s running for office ultimately has the responsibility to ensure people want to vote for them. It’s just not really useful to blame millions of people when you know that there are statistically for sure going to be disaffected people out of those who need to be motivated. It doesn’t even matter whether most voters who would vote for Biden turn out to vote for him - they almost certainly will - because this fight is at the margins, and to win, you have to capture the irresponsible and unreliable people too.
While implying that Trump, a literal white nationalist authoritarian fascist, somehow doesn’t support the genocide of brown people
A lot of people are clueless that Trump is going to be the GOP candidate.
The issue with that is that Republicans hold an even worse position on genocide in multiple ways and would have been gunning for not only Israel killing all Palestinians, but ejecting all Muslims from the US as well. Which they will also totally do if they win the election.
Two fascist parties?
Time to stay home on election day. I refuse to be complicit in the crimes of the State.
If the Democrats want my vote, they can start pandering to me instead of AIPAC.
Don’t for a moment think he has it in the bag. Get out and VOTE.
For that matter - vote out of spite for the rest of your life. I’ll see you there.
Idk, if the GOP collapses and all the rural dumbasses (or rather their children) learn critical thinking over the next 30 years to form some new age progressive movement then in that case Dems would become the bad guys. Definitely vote DNC this election tho, theres too damn much at stake to be picky.
Nobody’s saying vote democrat for the rest of your life, they’re saying to vote for the rest of your life. The fact is, Trump won one of the lowest turnout elections of our lifetime, and encouraging low turnout was part of his strategy to win. We know that Trump targeted likely dem voters with messaging campaigns saying things like “she’s got this in the bag, don’t bother” and “they’re all the same anyway”. Voting is how we spite the powerful regardless of what party they affiliate with.
Not very true statistically to say DNC candidates are more likely to win with higher turnout. While data does show that DNC voters overall are more likely to sit elections out due to lower partisan loyalty than Republicans, there is a big misconception that voter turnout benefits Democrats when historically there hasn’t been any consistent correlation in the past 70 years. This view is likely caused by the fact that voting ease of access is a partisan stance upheld by the DNC.
I don’t remember my sources, you’ll have to either take my word for it or disagree and move along. You have the right to fact check this but not any obligation.
I’m voting and I’m doing it in Florida…I may not win but I’m cancelling one Fascist vote.
Voting from WV here. Some may consider it “wasting my vote” but I’m already “wasting my life” at a shit job I hate so fuck it we ball
Mail it in to really stick it to them.
Instructions early, the people at the library were very confused when I tried to vote
Exactly. Vote!!!
I don’t have to like Joe or his policies to know that voting for him is the better choice. It sucks to have vote for the lesser evil, but right now the gap between the lesser and greater evils is so large that it makes the decision simple.
Joe will be
a lame duck in 28’ineligible to run in 28’which will hopefully give us a chance to force the issue on not wantting to vote for the lesser evil then. However right now the greater evil is the issue, if we want to have a system to reform in 28’ the choice on who to vote for now isn’t a choice at all.I feel like I’m taking crazy pills when my best choice is to vote for someone who I know will not adequately address the multitude of extremely time sensitive issues facing our planet and country.
Like yeah, Trump will be worse, and the system is such that you literally have to vote blue if you want to mitigate the damage. But climate change isn’t waiting for us to “fix the system”, Americans dying of inadequate health care don’t have time to wait, the rich aren’t going to stop widening the wealth gap just because. And for all of this, my vote goes to an administration that will only employ soft tactics to stop genocide…
But hey, at least it could be worse right…
Lesser evil might have been a thing 20 years ago, calling Biden lesser evil is just ignorant.
He’s going up against a man that does not believe in democracy or the peaceful transition of power.
It’s like looking at broccoli and dog vomit and saying I’ll eat broccoli it’s the lesser of two evils… 🤷♂️
Pretty good metaphor since the only one who’d say that for real is a fucking child who’s mad they don’t get ice cream for dinner
?
He can’t run a third time, even if he’s alive by then.
I’m a single-issue voter. My single issue is “fuck the Republicans.”
I don’t like Biden. He’s a neoliberal stooge, the Democratic party is irredeemably infested with corporate-friendly neoliberal bootlickers, and they don’t spare a fuck for people who actually work for a living if they can afford it.
But the Republican party is basically the American Nazi party now, and they’ve been a coalition of fundies, fascists, and white supremacists since Eisenhower left office.
My choice is simple: I’d rather vote for a neoliberal than a neo-Nazi, knowing all the while that I’m voting for the lesser evil and that the lesser evil is still evil. Voting third party only helps the Republicans; it’s not like the Green Party are going to get their shit together and start winning local and state elections in my lifetime instead of just trying to get Jill Stein into the White House.
Russia stopped pushing Jill Stein quite so hard once they compromised the major parties (democrats by releasing their emails, republicans by using their email trove as kompromat.)
If we ever get rid of the Republicans, my single issue will become “fuck the Democrats”.
Presuming whatever party emerges from the ashes doesn’t manage to still be worse. Which… gestures vaguely at the kind of humanity that gains and keeps power
I’ve got hatred enough for every party of power junkies: Republicans, Democrats, and whatever succeeds them. It will outlive me and take on its own tenebrous life.
If Trump is still the nominee, he will likely have been convicted in at least one of those 4 criminal cases, but still holds sway in the party to win anyway and will double-dog-dare Georgia to throw him in jail. In that case, I don’t think enough people would willingly vote for a felon (even a Republican one) to give him a chance.
This leaves Biden a single thing he absolutely needs to win the election: a pulse. I think the only person keeping America from becoming a fascist dictatorship is not Biden, it’s his cardiologist. That doctor needs to keep Biden’s heart ticking until Jan 21 2025.
I don’t think enough people would willingly vote for a felon
It does lay the groundwork for a civil war. You know some redneck dumb fucks are going to try to break him out of jail, and then it’s on. It’s clear that Trump’s base is voting Trump no matter what.
His base sure, but his base aren’t all of the people who’ve voted for him, and being a convicted felon is going to tank his numbers outside that base
The other people that voted for him are still going to vote for him because R.
Pretending otherwise is why Biden is behind in the polls.
I’m equally happy with a Saddam style lookalike or if he kicks the bucket in the last few days, even a Weekend at Bernie’s solution.
The worst possible timeline is if Biden wins the election, but croaks before the election can be certified by Congress. There will be legitimate challenges over whether any Biden/Harris electors can be accepted at all, and the election may go to the House/Senate to decide. And even if the Democrats control Congress , if the House has to vote on who should be President each state’s delegation gets 1 vote, and that math favors Republicans.
In that scenario, a Trump/Harris administration is extremely likely, even if the Biden/Harris ticket won enough EC votes to win.
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I think the most important metric for Biden and the Democrats in the upcoming us election is a blood pulse.
I would argue that some cognitive ability is required also, in order to perform at the debates. But Trump has already set the precedent that the front runner can ignore debates.
So the only metrics Biden needs to meet are
- earn more EC votes than Trump
- Have a pulse when the EC votes are counted in Jan 2025
- Be able to repeat what some guy in a robe tells him to repeat on Jan 20 2025
If he does all that, but keels over on Jan 21, his second term will still be a success.
I keep seeing messaging that essentially amounts to “Biden doesn’t have to try, everything is great actually, and, besides, Trump is unelectable”. Clearly the democrats learned nothing from 2016. This is too big to fuck up, don’t phone it in.
The secret here is the D’s aren’t actually trying to win this one.
I want to disagree with you, but I just can’t wrap my head around team Biden’s messaging feeling this completely disconnected from the reality on the ground for a lot of Americans. And when you call out the disconnection, the answer isn’t anything approaching empathy or understanding, it’s “you’re wrong lol”. It just feels like they’re not even trying.
Trump has all the weaknesses of an incumbent and few of the benefits. I knew some people who tried to play very agnostic about his record in 2016, but now as in 2020, the American people have a record to judge him on. And it’s not very pretty. Biden is going to start laying into that record. And soon the negative polarization will build back up, after the GOP decides who exactly the are with their candidate chosen.
The issue of abortion has already decided the partisan general.
Time for everyone to bemoan the two party system but you dont dare suggest they stop supporting it
Bar is low but I’m not sure if he reaches it
He’s already reached it. If he fails it won’t be a failure of his administration, it will be a failure of the electorate.
He seemed to lose in the most recent poll I heard of
How pathetic is it that we are forced into a situation where both candidates suck ass. Let me vote harder for shit to get worse either way.🙄
Yay, more “both sides” bullshit!
Yup, Biden is absolutely the same as Trump. Nothing progressive has come out of his administration at all.
Cool bro, my grocery bill is fucking outrageous the cost of living is going up with no raises for the regular guy. They do everything but actually help the middle class.
I’m not giving Biden a full pass, but inflation has struck across the globe. Why do you think we would be special?
There’s a land war on in Europe, and another more recently in the middle east, tech is still confused about how to deal with a post COVID world, and just laid off hundreds of thousands of employees, refugees from climate crisis and political unrest are fleeing across the Americas, Asian and Europe, nationalism has been on the rise for nearly a decade, and here at home the GOP is in a true state of crisis, as their old guard evil white guys are dealing with the insane fascists new guys.
The world is crazy right now, but eggs are expensive, so fuck voting I guess.
There might be yet another land war in Africa soon,
Ethiopia has been developing some very strange definitions of colonialism, specifically that water rights and sovereignty over your own coastlines are colonialism apparently.
Also those egg prices spiking headlines have been around times of deadly avian flu outbreaks over the past couple years (we just had another one too). Kind of the the cost of cheap eggs. If you want your eggs dirt cheap, well they get that cheap because they come from giant factory farms with them all crammed together in horrible conditions ripe for diseases to spread. So everytime there’s an avian flu outbreak, they have to kill of millions of chickens to prevent it from spreading further, and egg prices will spike again. In the outbreak in 2022 egg wholesale prices doubled in less than a month after an outbreak, and 20% of all egg laying chickens in Iowa (nation’s biggest egg producer) alone were culled. Eggs are often loss leaders for grocery stores too who may sell them for even less than wholesale, so the price is quite manipulated and retailer dependent. Often why you find them way in the back corner of the store so you have to walk by all the higher margin products. Point is, eggs are a terrible gauge of who to vote for, unless you’re trying to reduce animal cruelty but that would make eggs more expensive anyways so, /shrug
Corporations are gouging for more profits and Bidens response is to tell them not knock it off? It’s greedflation and our representatives refuse to do anything to help the regular person. I don’t see the c suite sacrificing.
Mine too!
I’m Canadian so how did Biden do that?
Wow our governments are both ram my neo-libs wonder what we have in common🤔
governments are both ram my neo-libs
Can you try this part one more time?
Oh boy we have a grammar correction!
I’m just trying to figure out what you’re saying, I can usually figure out typos.
Yes, the president is single person that can change all of that for you at the snap of their fingers.
Have you considered quitting and getting the same job at a different company for more money?
Yup. It’s definitely all about you.
Bye.
Good luck winning the average middle class American and young people lmao.
Biden doesn’t suck ass. That’s meme-tier shit.
I’ll agree when he doesn’t put out an economic plan that isn’t means tested garbage. Didn’t do shit about student loans either. So yea for the average middle class person they both suck ass.
