A report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) raised the question of whether Russia might be emboldened to fire a NSNW in the belief that the West lacks the resolve to deliver a nuclear response.
It said the logic of using a NSNW would be to escalate a conflict in a controlled fashion, “either to prevent the US and NATO from engaging, or to coerce them into war termination on Russian terms”.
WTF are they smoking?
If the calculation was solely of Russia and Ukraine, that might be considered a logically sound gamble, if still under long-odds. But it’s not. It’s a question of the normalization of the use of nuclear weapons, and sure as shit that won’t fly.
WTF are they smoking?
Nothing, it’s Russians being Russians.
Nothing. This is to scare the West.
Nothing. This is to scare the West.
I Russia using a nuclear weapon (even just a small tac nuke) would have the opposite effect on the West. I also think the backlash from non-western nations against Russia would be significant too. No one wants it to be “acceptable” to use nuclear weapons except in defense, and only as a last resort.
Russia started this war with a invasion. If the rest of the world gives Russia a pass, then any other nuclear nation would expect the same in their offensive operations. Since there are only 9 nuclear armed nations, the other 171-ish nations would not like to give that kind of permission.
But Russia is not using nuclear weapons, they write strategy papers about using nuclear weapons.
Sounds like Putin realizes his position as any kind of leader is coming to an end, and he wants to take the whole planet out with him.
Prepare for the biggest understatement in awhile: the world is not going to miss that guy when he’s dead.
Honest question- does a proportional response to a NSNW call for a retaliatory NSNW? Could conventional weapons deliver a proportionate response?
The US has stated they will react with overwhelming conventional force if Russia nukes Ukraine. The idea is to keep the nuclear taboo alive by making any use of nukes counterproductive. Russia instantly looses the war in Ukraine if they employ nukes.
Sounds good to me. The US ending the war, I mean. They can start today. Please.
We better hope so. I don’t want Goku to spirit bomb the baddie, I’d rather Krillin use his Destructo disc
For good reason the US and others don’t make public their playbook for responding to nuclear attacks on themselves or others with very few exceptions. We know about “mutually assured destruction” in the case of an ICBM, but not much else.
“Proportional” probably doesn’t apply in the case of nukes, it’s usually described as a maximal response to ensure it never happens again. However, the rumor has always been that an enemy using a nuke on an allied country would result in the US engaging in “total eradication” of that government. Probably, in this case, the complete destruction of Moscow. If I had to guess I’d think that would (since we’re pretty damn sure we could) do that with conventional arms to limit escalation.
