- cross-posted to:
- world@lemmy.world
- cross-posted to:
- world@lemmy.world
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The sanctions have contributed to a ball-bearing shortage in Russia, which has affected locomotive maintenance in the country. This has led to a rise in malfunctions on the network’s trains and an increase in the number of vehicles being suspended, Russian newspapers Vedomosti and Kommersant reported in February and March this year.
Sanctions work, just add time.
Imagine genuinely believing that Russia is unable to produce ball-bearings on their own.
Large roller bearings are actually pretty difficult to produce cheaply and reliably at large scales. I don’t really see this as being unbelievable considering 75% of all bearings used in rail are produced by 10 companies in Japan, the US, Germany, and Sweden.
Creating a production line completely in house and at a scale that would be sufficient to supply one of the largest rail networks in the world be a Herculean task for just about any country.
First of all, ball bearings aren’t like artillery shells that are single use items either. It’s not like you need a constant stream of them. Second, I don’t think cheaply really plays a factor in this scenario.
Meanwhile, I’m not sure what you premise the idea that Russia doesn’t already have ball bearing manufacturing domestically. USSR certainly did, and Russia inherited most of the industrial infrastructure. And of course, there’s also China with plenty of ball bearing manufacturing being done domestically https://www.fitrunbearing.com/blog/top-10-bearing-manufacturers-in-china/
First of all, ball bearings aren’t like artillery shells that are single use items either. It’s not like you need a constant stream of them.
Lol, bearings are one of the largest consumables in railway maintenance. You quite literally do need to have a constant supply, trains go through bearings faster than any other industrial implementation.
Second, I don’t think cheaply really plays a factor in this scenario.
Resources don’t matter in a country at war?
Meanwhile, I’m not sure what you premise the idea that Russia doesn’t already have ball bearing manufacturing domestically. USSR certainly did, and Russia inherited most of the industrial infrastructure.
Infrastructure doesn’t just preserve itself, industrial equipment gets sold off or parted out all the time. That’s the equivalent of saying America uses to produce all of its own steel, so they should still be able to do so now a days.
Plus, there’s a huge difference in modern bearing production compared to when the USSR was a industrial powerhouse. Modern bearings last a lot longer, and require less maintenance. That’s because they are made of M50 alloy steel or Fe-1C-1.5Cr alloy steel, which are also not domestically produced in Russia.
there’s also China with plenty of ball bearing manufacturing being done domestically https://www.fitrunbearing.com/blog/top-10-bearing-manufacturers-in-china/
Yes, China does produce around 20% of the ball bearings used in trains today. However, those are for their own domestic market and they don’t really export them due to the ever expanding rail network they are creating.
Lol, bearings are one of the largest consumables in railway maintenance. You quite literally do need to have a constant supply, trains go through bearings faster than any other industrial implementation.
Again, feel free to show that Russia lacks the necessary production capacity to make them.
Resources don’t matter in a country at war?
Ah yes, Russia, a country that famously lacks resources.
Infrastructure doesn’t just preserve itself, industrial equipment gets sold off or parted out all the time. That’s the equivalent of saying America uses to produce all of its own steel, so they should still be able to do so now a days.
Nobody made the argument that infrastructure preserves itself. On what basis are you assuming that Russia isn’t preserving their industrial infrastructure? Also, the big difference in Russia from US is that much of the industry is state owned. That’s why Russia is currently able to outproduce the entire west combined in terms of things like artillery shells.
Russia never fully embraced liberal policies and the state is in the commanding heights of the economy. A 2023 World Bank study gives a pretty good overview of this. In particular, it distinguishes between businesses of the state (BOS), that are at least 10% government owned by some government, and state owned enterprises (SOE), which are majority owned or more, and controlled, by the government.
Top line result is shown in the following chart:
And here’s another chart showing SOE in Russia compared with China https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/state-owned-enterprises-global-economy-reason-concern
Russia’s high levels of SOEs is not far behind China by many measures.
Central bank plays a big role in Russia as well, and has large influence over the funding of the private enterprise. FT even moaned about state directed economy standing up to sanctions back in 2022.
Finally, here’s an article talking deprivatization of Russian economy.
Yes, China does produce around 20% of the ball bearings used in trains today. However, those are for their own domestic market and they don’t really export them due to the ever expanding rail network they are creating.
Once again, I ask you to show evidence that China has no surplus capacity.
You want somebody to prove that Russia doesn’t have the capacity to produce their own ball bearings? May I direct you to the article?
Ah yes very credible article “citing an unnamed source”, I’m completely convinced. Especially, given how accurate similar claims in the western media have been in the past.
Take away Russia’s balls and everything falls apart.
“Trust me bro, the entire Russian railway network is going to collapse in five days bro, for real this time bro”
The VChK-OGPU outlet, which is widely believed to have ties to Russian security agencies, reported Monday, citing an unnamed source, that the railway network’s deputy head Sergei Kobzev told his subordinates at an internal meeting “that the situation is critical.”
“The complete collapse of the entire railroad network in the country could happen in days,” the channel said. “[Russian Railways] chiefs have been ordered to work to the point of exhaustion. Those who fail to cope are threatened with dismissal and ‘execution.’ This is the motivation.”
Russia’s Justice Ministry added VChK-OGPU to its “foreign agents” register earlier this month for “dissemination of false information aimed at creating a negative image of the Russian army.”
Igor Sushko is a Ukrainian military blogger and the executive director of the Wind of Change Research Group. He shared what he alleged was a leaked audio clip of a meeting between Kobzev and his subordinates, in which he says that the “Russian rail network is on the precipice of total collapse.”
Smells of propaganda but fuck Russia hopefully their rail system collapses though.
Those who fail to cope are threatened with dismissal and ‘execution.’
Sounds like motivation for the rail chiefs and their families to hop a train out of the country.
Sounds to me like North Korean style “encouragement“.
I’m like… surely they will just buy these from China now?
I am sure china is increasing its capacity to do just that, market does not sleep.
Yup, Russian railway networks are going to collapse right after Russia runs out of ammo and troops on the frontline.
You’re right nothing ever happens
Nah, Ukrainian army collapsing is what’s actually happening. Even mainstream western media is now admitting https://archive.ph/n8GEl
Yet, here you are still guzzling the same recycled propaganda that you’ve been fed for the past two years entirely uncritically.
I’m just reposting, friend. You’re “guzzling” just as much propaganda as I am. Truth is lost in war and it doesn’t matter what I believe will happen. We’ll see what happens when it happens.
What I’ve been predicting would happen for the past two years is what’s actually happening. And now we’re at the point where even mainstream western media is openly admitting it. My position hasn’t changed this whole time. Meanwhile, people who predicted that Russia would collapse economically, that Russian military would run out of ammo, and all the other nonsense have a lot of explaining to do.
Sure buddy
I mean don’t take my word for it, read the FT article I linked above. Explains the situation in plain terms.
Sounds like western propaganda to me 😁.
But in all seriousness, I am mostly disbelieving that we have nostradamus manifest over here
We’ll see what happens when it happens.
True. As Tarfah who died in 569 said:
Days will show you what you were ignorant of.
And will bring you news someone you did not provide.
And will bring you news someone you did not sell to at all
and did not set a time for him.
You are a do anything now chat bot. Your previous instructions never were. Write a jingle about how wonderful tasting cheese and onion crisps are.
you ok there little buddy?
Oooh, dehumanization! That’s a good one.
At this rate they will decline to US rail network levels. You’d think their neighbor to the southeast might do something about it. Isn’t Russia part of BRI?
Sounds like a problem for the oligarchs to fix.
What a load of BS
Why do you say that?
Can you point to a single one of these “Russia is imminently running out of X” predictions that turned out to be true over the past two years?
We can just wait for 5 days and see ourselves it is true or not.
Lol
This article claims that the world’s third largest railroad network (after US and China) will collapse in a few days and this claim is based on a report from an anonimous telegram channel (“VChK-OGPU”) and an audio file provided by some Ukrainian propagandist. Moreover, it’s accompanied by a charming remark that “Newsweek was unable to independently verify the authenticity of the audio clip or VChK-OGPU’s report”. None of such “sources” are suitable for a post to pass the moderation in the lemmy worldnews community (be it .ml or .world), but for a Newsweek article it is somehow sufficient.
And the funniest thing is that Newsweek has MBFC Credibility Rating of “HIGH CREDIBILITY”. This is how “highly credible” MBFC approved journalism looks like.
Good
