China has reached the end of its economic boom. What comes next should worry every American business — and the rest of the world.
The phrase “it’s official” sits right alongside “literally” for most frequently misused statements.
I was wondering if the article was about a credit rating change or something, but I’m halfway through and there is no specific event mentioned. Just generalized analysis and forecasting.
Ugh, learn to data. Maybe the analysis is spot on, but “trust me bro” is not a valid citation.
It’s official!!! Business Insider is shit
That’s Business Insider for you
It’s literally official, you read it here first.
Bro china’s gonna fall any day now, trust me bro. Bro this is different bro, they’re falling bro. Dude any day now they’re gonna fall bro you gotta believe me bro.
That is undoubtedly true. They are protected to lose a shit ton of their population. By 2050,they will likely have 100 million fewer people. They are projected to lose another 100 million the following decade.
Granted that is a couple decades away.
I don’t directly deal with China, but I do know that it’s pretty much the only place where you can say “I need a factory with 20k people manufacturing a million of these widgets per month,” and it just gets done. There’s obviously all kinds of bad baggage that goes along with that, and yes it’s perhaps ironic that a “communist” country is the go-to place for labor exploitation, but that’s how it is right now.
China may have been guilty of enthusiastic over-investment that got ahead of where their market actually was in areas like real estate. That’s again ironic because that’s exactly one of the weaknesses of market systems.
In the other hand it’s not really ironic because China is actually the apotheosis of state capitalism.
I feel like a lot of people were looking to see China to become the world’s largest economy soon, but it is becoming apparent that China’s economic growth is no longer sustainable.
We also don’t know what a Chinese recession is going to look like. We’re at the collapse of Bear Stearns point in what’s going on in China and it isn’t like China can pump its economy through infrastructure spending.
I know from personal experience that while Chinese factories are great for mass manufacturing, things really start to go out the window once you get into precision engineering. My company put a ban on ordering any parts that need high metal purity (95%+) from China or India because they would just falsify their material test reports constantly.
To be clear, you can at great cost overcome those issues too and maintain a good level of supply chain integrity, however it costs so much doing so only makes sense when manufacturing on a huge scale - tens of millions at least with each item being very valuable. Ie…iPhones.
The vast majority of stuff that people want made in China isn’t nearly that profitable.
(I’m not a tankie but) Doubt
No no.
See, we ran the Numbies.
China Numbies Go Down.
Numbies supposed to Go Up.
China is doom.
/s
This strain of brainworm never ceases to amaze me. I’m not a tankie, either and I hate the mainland with a passion. But counting China completely out when it’s clowning the rest of the world on infrastructure right now is just plain mouth-breather stupid.
counting China completely out when it’s clowning the rest of the world on infrastructure right now
Wtf does infrastructure have to do with anything. There’s lots of Roman infrastructure all over the Mediterranean, when was the last time you met a citizen of the SPQR?
The only correlation building infrastructure has with economic prosperity is that governments often use infrastructure projects to patch over economic lulls and stimulate a lagging economy.
But for infrastructure projects to be a benefit they need to deliver more productivity to the economy than they cost to build, at minimum enough to cover the debt taken on the build it.
China used infrastructure spending to artificially stimulate the economy at a breakneck pace, and now they have all this infrastructure nobody is using. High speed trains nobody rides, entire cities built from scratch with few to no residents or businesses, and there’s only so long you can do that before it becomes unsustainable - which is now.
So what exactly are they going to do with all this infrastructure now, that will save their economy? Sell it?
Yeah, the only scenario where this is true is the one where they realize that China never had ‘global dominance’. China is a major player and is set to remain so for the foreseeable future.
The title is clickbait, but the article itself is worth a read
Seeing that it’s from businessInsider, going to assume it’s some random blogger who is trying to sell a book or be a influencer in some space.
Not in this case, it’s a full length deep dive article.
A) I’m not sure China has had global dominance over the US, but they definitely have dominance over pretty much every other country depending how you measure it.
B) I’m really really not sure I believe the gloom and doom predictions for China’s economy when the government tightly controls all aspects of the economy. Even if they have reached the end of the boom, I don’t see much of a backslide. They are buying up shipping ports around the world to give themselves preferential rates and access. They are buying up natural resources around the world to give themselves better preferential rates. They are doing what the US did for so long in giving out predatory loans to struggling countries in exchange for preferential trade relations.
I’m pretty anti-China in most things, but I’m realistic about the state of the world.
No, it isn’t. China is just no longer growing at the unrealistic expectations of US economists.
It isn’t just the unrealistic expectations of US economists, but the Chinese government as well.
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business insider
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They’re literally getting stronger
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This seems a little too sensational to be trustworthy. I’d take it with a grain of salt. China, like the US, is an economic superpower. Economies have ups and downs, and China still has a long road ahead.
As @sik0fewl mentioned. China has a population problem, a huge population problem.
Most of the developed world does but most also have large immigration numbers to offset it. The USA is the same, immigration is the main driver of its population growth and population growth is the main driver of maintaining and expanding a countries GDP.
They scale that china’s population will crash over the next 30 years is hard to grasp.
The number of people they have who are of working age will drop by ~100 million. While at the same time the USA will grow in that range.
That is the difference between the two…
With RES I used to filter all businessinsider.com posts since they’re just garbage articles. Wish I could do the same here.
Two clicks with Kbin.
Alternatively, one could also use uBlock Origin cosmetic filters;
Kbin:
kbin.social##article:has-text(/businessinsider.com/i)Lemmy:
lemmy.world##.post-listing:has-text(/businessinsider.com/i)Today I learned
China has a huge population problem.
This is the best summary I could come up with:
For the past three decades, China has been on the upswing of a supercycle that saw an almost uninterrupted expansion of the country’s capacity to manufacture, appetite to consume, and ability to project power across the world economy.
Chu — who has been called the “rock star” of Chinese debt analysis — told me that this weakness is not just a result of a cyclical downturn; it’s a part of a more permanent shifting of supply chains caused by trade tensions with Europe and the US.
Allowing a property-market correction, bailing out local governments, creating a new funding mechanism for them, developing a social safety net for the people through all this instability — all of it costs money.
When Japan started struggling in 1991 with a similar dynamic — aging population, sky-high debt, and slowing growth — its GDP per capita was more than triple that amount, at $41,266 in today’s dollars.
“What’s really a shame is that China never seized the opportunity on the way up to build a comprehensive social safety net where people feel they don’t have to save a lot of money for a rainy day — for healthcare, education, what have you,” Chu told me.
Earlier this month, the House select committee on China competition held a hearing in New York City, calling on witnesses to describe what risk looks like with a Chinese Communist Party that’s less committed to the free flow of capital and more concerned with flexing its muscles within its region.
The original article contains 2,755 words, the summary contains 251 words. Saved 91%. I’m a bot and I’m open source!
I didn’t even know China was dominating us tbh
oh my god, haven’t we had enough global crises over the last 3 Years? i mean i hate china too, but we’re still dependent on their economy.
There’s a good YouTube video titled something like “china’s economy is 60% smaller than they state”. It’s worth watching.
