It makes me crazy that we’re even talking about this and it’s more than a year away. Our election cycles in the US are too damn long.
This is what happens when political parties are treated and viewed like sports teams
Is this another landline poll? Those are notoriously and increasingly useless.
You mean you don’t take 15 minutes out of your day to answer random questions when a random phone number calls?
At this point I hope for pollsters to contact me just so I can see how the process works.
I think I got texted once about the 2020 election and that was it. People who don’t have landlines are invisible when it comes to polls like this.
I get texts ALL. THE. TIME. for surveys like this. It’s just another spam text. I actually went through all the hassle of filling the goddamn thing out one time because they were asking about a local office and I really cared about the candidate I wanted to win.
It was like 30 pages of questions asking the same three questions from every direction possible, and when I went to submit it there was an error and it told me I would not be able to submit or retake the survey.
I don’t do it anymore.
The New York Times/Siena College poll of 1,329 registered voters nationwide, including an oversample of 818 registered Republican voters, was conducted in English and Spanish on cellular and landline telephones from July 23-27, 2023. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.67 percentage points for all registered voters and plus or minus 3.96 percentage points for the likely Republican primary electorate
Landline and cellular plus an oversample of republicans? Maybe someone better at statistics can say why that was needed
Probably because the ratio of r:d is higher for actual voters than for registers voters.
If you have access, the ny times article goes into all of the methodology
Cross-Tabs: July 2023 Times/Siena Poll of the 2024 Race and National Issues https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/08/01/us/elections/times-siena-poll-registered-voters-crosstabs.html?smid=nytcore-android-share
Do they still really do landline polls? No one I know has a landline anymore. My neighbor tried to get one and the phone company told her it wasn’t possible.
It depends on your area. I live in a more rural area currently, and landlines are decently common. They’re more reliable than a cell phone depending on where you’re at. Some people even have them run out to their barns/buildings, just in case something happens.
Sweet Jesus the people in this country are fucking stupid.
The guy came a hallway short from ending democracy in our country and installing himself dictator and these stupid fucks want to give him another shot.
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When Trump lost, they decided (and were propagandized into believing) that democracy had failed. Many of them genuinely believe that the democratic party is a fascist entity bent on destroying America. That’s the scary part.
I think there are about three things in play here:
- Quite a lot of the republican base lives in a completely different reality thanks to campaigns of propaganda and destroying education. Charitably, the best way to describe these people is extremely ignorant. For them, these indictments are dem led witch-hunts that they mostly don’t believe, even when you can literally see the opposite. EG: Should presidents take classified documents? No. What are these pictures? those are classified documents at maralago. Did Trump do something wrong? Now let me tell you about Hunter Biden and the Biden crime family…
- Quite a lot of republicans are bordering on sociopathy if not pure evil. The party in particularly, and not the voters, know they’re peddling bullshit but they don’t care because it’s going to get them more money/power, which is the only real goal/ideology. Then you have the white supremacists and fascists that are just evil and are doing this for ideological reasons.
- Systems are designed in this country to perpetuate this. Literal minority rule is a founding principal of this country.
Calling on my fellow Canadians to grab their shovels and dig a trench along the boarder so we can push off into the ocean and away from this clusterfuck.
repubs are dumber than dogshit.
Germany did that too. But the guy did a lot better in the first term and installed himself as the only Leader. He even got imprisoned, yet he prevailed.
Please Murica, just do the right thing. The oter option isn’t great, but you’ll regret another Trump 4ys
To them, he came that close to success…
I’m sorry but if you’re going to try to overthrow thus democracy, you’re not going to do it with a bunch of lawyers.
Okay, before people start beating me up, I’m not arguing for complacency, but this headline is more than a bit click-baity.
This is a small poll, and per the poll’s methodology (scroll down, keep scrolling… nope keep going… ok… there you go - emphasis mine):
The New York Times/Siena College poll of 1,329 registered voters nationwide, including an oversample of 818 registered Republican voters, was conducted in English and Spanish on cellular and landline telephones from July 23-27, 2023. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.67 percentage points for all registered voters and plus or minus 3.96 percentage points for the likely Republican primary electorate.
Not only did they over sample Republicans, their margin of error is almost 4% within that group.
This feels like the NYT attempting to establish a narrative based on a very small, biased sampling of data. Remember that the mass media wants to amp up the uncertainty levels (which drive engagement and advertising revenue), and with Trump basically blowing out the primary, they’ll need another spectacle to ensure that it appears to be a close contest down to the finish line. The timing of the poll release and the headline is also suspect, especially as this poll was taken before the news of the latest indictment, yet presented as if it’s a reaction to today’s news.
That being said, I think it is an accurate portrayal of sentiment from those who still consider themselves Republicans. I don’t believe, given the small sample sizes and admitted bias, that it’s an accurate picture of the country.
Again, that’s not an argument for political complacency - rather, it’s one against media driven narratives relying on biased polling that make you scroll down six pages of tables to find their methodology.
It’s also a telephone poll…that guarantees it’s mostly people 50 and older because who the fuck under 50 answers phone calls from unknown numbers?
I rarely answer calls from known numbers
I don’t even answer calls from me.
I’d answer your calls. Just call me 1-900-FAT-CHIX.
I mean, I wouldn’t encourage any one to relax when it comes to Trump, but based on what’s up today, there is extremely low likelihood that Trump wins. People should realize just how unlikely it is for an incumbent to not get re-elected. Trump would have skated to re-election had he just not so catastrophically fucked up COVID and thus the economy. Again, not even be competent at it, just be less incompetent.
Biden probably has this in the bag barring some act of god. He’s going into '24 as one of the most legislatively accomplished presidents, great economic numbers including avoiding recession, etc. Then there is the whole “Trump might be in jail by the election” thing, and even if not in jail, he’s going to be so mired in legal proceedings it is unlikely he’ll be able to effectively campaign. DeSantis is a distant 2nd, and seems to be only widening that gap every time him or his campaign opens his mouth. The rest in this primary are auditioning for roles on Fox or lobbyist positions.
Again, I would not relax because if somehow Trump is elected we probably just sealed the countries fate into a full fascist dictatorship, but it’s just not likely.
With such a small sample all you can really take from this is that both parties will receive votes. This says next to nothing about how close the race will be.
None of this matters. I mean the DNC could run some octogenarian and Dem voters would happily vote for him/her. The RNC could run some octogenarian who was twice impeached and thrice indicted and the Republican voters would happily vote for him. It’s crazy town.
Without clicking the link, my assumption is they are both tied at 0, because neither of them should be running in the first place. Is if these are the two best candidates the DNC and RNC and produce, than maybe those two organizations shouldn’t exist anymore.
The DNC IS running an octogenerian, and I’ll vote for him, but not happily. Because the alternative is fascism.
On the other hand, it will be fun to vote against Trump a third time. Looking forward to the fourth time in 2028 as well (if he’s still alive)!
All of the polls are horribly off. Trump is way behind. Biden"s approval ratings are also way off. They are much higher than the media portrays it. This is just corporate media selling us a horse race and FUD for ratings as usual.
Don’t suppose you can back any of that up with, you know… facts?
Learn how to read poll numbers.
Here is a great example on this very poll. https://lemmy.world/comment/1956223
Polling is basically horrible. It is basically marketing. Its either marketing for a candidate or for news media. It is a tool used to control what you read and believe, rather than to inform.
Propaganda works great, doesn’t it?
These numbers never really matter.
They don’t, but it’s still interesting.
“most”… yeah. sure.
All it takes is for Biden to develop a sudden health problem, as old people sometimes do; then it’s Trump vs Kamala Harris and we’re fucked.
Trump is only 3 years younger. They’re both old as fuck.
That and Biden still jogs and bikes. Trump has a hard time shuffling down a ramp.
And drinking water with one hand.
Similarly Trump could fall over dead tomorrow and then it’s old man Biden vs young . This is the current plan for any Republican currently in the race, the hope that Trump takes himself out, either via the legal system or just poor general health, and then they can swoop in and be Trump “lite”.
Trump could fall over dead and his cult of followers would still vote for him.
That would be good, wouldn’t it?
Well not if the dead guy actually won!
Yes, but I think the point they were making is that the plan to wait for trump to die is kinda pointless.
Yeah, but if it’s DeSantis the GOP is still screwed. Normal people hate him, too.
I’ll never understand why the DNC didn’t start grooming someone for 2020 immediately the day after the election in November 2016. Yet another tactical blunder that is so characteristic of the party.
They did. She didn’t stand out
Who are you referring to?
As long as the same two parties rule the country in a cycle you will always be fucked
There are different levels of fucked though.
And there’s also the possibility of not voting these two parties
Yes but no one here said they wanted to guarantee an advantage to Republicans, unless that is what you are saying?
How does not voting for these two parties advantages one or the other?
First Past The Post voting means that if you have one right-wing candidate get 40% of the vote, and three left-wing candidates get 20% each, the right-winger wins.
It’s not the system we want, but it’s the system we’ve got, and until we have the power to change that, it’s the rules we’ll have to work with.
Enough of this bullshit, any party has the same chances of winning the vote don’t trust the propaganda
You split the vote. If you would have voted for one of the parties but you instead vote for a third party, third parties are not going to win in this day and age and your vote can no longer support whichever of the two parties you prefer. If enough members of one party does that (because they have simmilar views), the party that doesn’t have some of their voters voting for a third party gains an advantage. It’s kinda dumb but it’s also why it was inevitable that this voting system would become 2 party.
We need Ranked Choice Voting for presidency ASAP. I am super happy to see that it’s making it’s way into some states lower votes. But to be honest out of all the things I vote on, the most important one feels like the President and that’s the one I want RCV for.
As long as people like you keep drinking the propaganda made by the two parties system that no third party can win, then no third party will ever win
This can’t be true,
Trump is a convicted rapist and known criminal that emboldened domestic terrorism.
Biden is actually doing a great job.
These two things are not equal.
Trump is a convicted rapist
This is factually inaccurate. I’ll agree he is likely a rapist, but he was never convicted of rape. He was found liable for sexual abuse in a civil trial, but he was explicitly found not liable for rape in the E. Jean Carroll case.
This is in no way a defense is Trump, but those words have a specific legal meaning, and I think there are a million other ways to call Trump that are actually accurate.
What’s this mean? “Judge clarifies: Yes, Trump was found to have raped E. Jean Carroll” https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/07/19/trump-carroll-judge-rape/
The judge is just saying that what he was found liable for could be construed as rape as the word is commonly used even if it’s not legally. Regardless of that, this article also makes the distinction that he is not convicted of anything due to it being a civil trial and not a criminal one. Saying he is a convicted rapist is still not correct.
gotcha, today I learned. thanks.
…but, but, but Biden told those railroad workers to go back to work so the economy didn’t collapse, so you know, he’s just as bad as Trump!1!!
/s
I guarantee you that topic is going to come up more than a few times over the next few months from people who never intended to vote for Biden either way and instead are cherry picking bullshit topics to help sway others.
And we have to be ready to counter with the fact that Biden continued to put pressure and ultimately got the rail workers their sick days.
wow this is the first I’m hearing about this, thanks.
You don’t have to convince me. The problem is that the damage was done. FOX News will use this issue to attack Biden as being supposedly anti labor.
…while actively being anti-labor. Don’t forget that part. Conservatives don’t have a platform, they have the need to be angry at anything.
Legit didn’t know about this. It was one thing I was genuinely disappointed of
I’m you from the future, people are really really really stupid.
Biden’s administration is a lot better than Trumps. That’s a very low bar to cross. He and his administration is still trash. We needed another FDR after Bush Jr. We got another Bill Clinton, another Reagan, and a third Bill Clinton.
Biden’s administration is actually the second most effective in economic growth and public works projects after FDR. And it’s not even close.
Remember Clinton? That guy whom every liberal loved? All he did was privatize everything and trash our economy going into the 2000 recession.
I absolutely disagree he is not doing a great job he is horrible for the environment, arguably worse then trump.
When we are faced with the possible collapse of all civilization through climate change he could be argued as one of the worst presidents ever cause the longer we go without seriously addressing the cause of climate change the more serious the action needs to be.
Dude…Trump actively fought against CA to try and get their fuel standards thrown out. Like actively worked as hard as he could against the environment. He failed since he is chaotic and unorganized with a cabinet of crazies but that’s kinda the only reason.
One is convicted the other is not but they are both criminals and pedos.
Inform yourself, your country is corrupted as fuck, all politicians are liars, both “red” and “blue” have been pushing the same authoritarian measures and many of the key people working in the government never change
Being educated means knowing bOtH sIdEs is a bullshit erasure of nuance and serves no one except Republicans
This should not even be possible. The propaganda machine in place since Nixon apparently works. People are fucking stupid.
The USA votes it’s president in with the Electoral College. Every poll talking about “voters … tie … blah …blah …blah” doesn’t mean shit, cause the voters don’t get to pick the president. Their representatives do. And guess what, their representatives don’t have to represent them. They can vote however they want. They can even get elected and then switch parties to the bad guys team. Also, fuck the GOP.
clickbait
Their representatives do.
Electors, not representatives.
And guess what, their representatives don’t have to represent them. They can vote however they want.
That depends on the state. While there are no federal provisions on how an elector should vote, several states do have rules requiring them to follow the popular vote. Additionally, the popular vote is used to select which electors (a.k.a. which parties electors) are sent.
Also most of these surveys admit bias towards the right because it’s generally them that are stupid enough to do phone surveys.
what does doing phone surveys have to do with being stupid? what a dumb take
I think they are trying to relate being on the right to being stupid and that the right also tend to do phone surveys. Not relating being stupid to taking phone surveys specifically.
Not that i have any opinion one way or the other.
Just felt like you took the meaning of their comment in a way that was not intended.
they said “people that are stupid enough to do phone surveys” - this is pretty explicit in my view.
What they actually said was
Also most of these surveys admit bias towards the right because it’s generally them that are stupid enough to do phone surveys.
So, breaking that down, surveys are mostly done by people on the right. And its “generally them that are stupid enough” (so people on the right are stupid) “to do phone surveys”
So whilst op does seem to think you have to be stupid to do phone surveys, what they are trying to say is that people on the right are the only ones stupid enough to do them. Because people on the right are stupid.
Not surprising. US Americans are used to their government breaking the law all the time, all over the world. Why would they expect something else at home?
